Each year the editors of the Farmers' Almanac release long-range, annual weather predictions based on a formula comparing data found in solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
So how accurate have their predictions been so far this winter?
Released last October, the annual winter weather outlook for the 2021-22 seasons called for a “Frosty Flip-Flop Winter” marked by "flip-flop conditions with notable polar coaster swings in temperatures."
Based on recent weather, their predictions were more or less accurate.
The Farmers' Almanac predicted a chilly, snowy January with more precipitation falling in the latter half of the month. This proved true as Alamance County saw snow, sleet and ice three weekends in a row.
Those three weekends left more precipitation in Alamance County than on average. According to BestPlaces.net, Alamance County sees an average of 3 inches of snow each year. The January storms left accumulations closer to 4 or 5 inches over the course of three weeks.
As predicted, February turned out to be a more mild month, marked by flip-flopping weather conditions. Perhaps this explains the fluctuation between 60 degree and 30 degree days we've seen throughout the month.
The Farmers' Alamance also includes detailed predictions on what's to come before spring arrives.
"From start to finish, (March) will be full of stretches of uneventful weather, but when it turns stormy, the precipitation will come in big doses," the forecast notes.
More: Gibsonville restaurant changes ownership: Kimber's Steakhouse has a new name, new menu and new plan
The Southeast U.S. forecast is calling for mild but chilly weather throughout the last week of February, followed by lots of rain throughout the first half of March. Those flip-flopping temperatures are also expected to continue.
Here is the breakdown of what is predicted for next month:
- 1st - 3rd: Light rain.
- 4th - 7th: Unsettled with more rain and showers.
- 8th - 11th: Considerable cloudiness.
- 12th - 15th: Periods of rain and showers.
- 16th - 19th: Showery rains.
On March 20, spring will arrive but what will it bring?
"While many of us will be looking forward to the end of winter, spring temperatures may take their time arriving. According to our long-range outlook, temperatures will be slow to warm. In fact, around the time of the vernal equinox unseasonably cold temperatures may be gripping many parts of the country," the spring forecast read.
The weather predictions are drawn from three scientific disciplines with forecasts emphasizing temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, and based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.
If you’re not a subscriber, please support local journalism and consider a subscription to The Times-News.
Elizabeth Pattman is the trending topics reporter for the Times-News in Burlington, covering business, COVID-19 and all things trending. Contact Elizabeth (she/her) at epattman@gannett.com. I'm also available on social media @EPattmanTN on Twitter or @burlingtontimesnews on Instagram.
This article originally appeared on Times-News: Farmers' Almanac predicted winter weather. What will come this spring for Alamance County?
